In their International Energy Outlook 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the global light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet contained 1.31 billion vehicles in 2020. And they are projecting this fleet will grow to 2.21 billion vehicles by 2050.
The EIA estimates electric LDVs will grow from 0.7% of the global LDV fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million electric vehicles.
Significant growth in EV sales and shares of sales through the projection period results in the global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet peaking in 2038. The EIA project that an increase in economic activity, population, and private mobility will result in more global LDVs through 2050.
The 2020 global LDV fleet primarily consists of conventional gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, but sales of EVs are projected to grow due to recent technology and policy developments. In our International Energy Outlook 2021, EVs include both full battery, all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that are primarily powered by liquid fuels when batteries are nearly depleted.
The EIA project EV fleet shares will reach 34% in OECD countries and 28% in non-OECD countries by 2050. Although the conventional LDV fleet peaks in 2023 for OECD countries, faster growth in the non-OECD fleet results in nearly two-thirds of light-duty EVs being in non-OECD countries by 2050.